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Foresight on Future Demand for Forest-based Products and Services: Setting the Scene

The aim of the COST Strategic Workshop series 2010-2011 is to carry out a wide-angle foresight exercise on the future demand for multiple forest-based products and services. The project combines expert workshops and a collection of data and perceptions by means of internet-based tools.

The forest sector has developed methods and tools for making projections on the future, and several future oriented exercises are ongoing both at national and interregional level. Often the emphasis in the forest sector studies has been laid on the supply side, with only a flavour of demand, for example, related to wood-based products. There is a need to explore new emerging topics with regard to the future of forests and forestry in a wider demand context, taking into account the anticipated changes e.g. in global population, consumer markets and consumption patterns, public opinion and related societal demands, as well as the potential effects of climate change and the developments in related policy deliberations.

This first workshop invited experts from forest sector and related sectors with experience on foresight exercises to widen their horizon beyond current thinking and to recognise new emerging topics.

The 1,5-day workshop was structured with key notes and interactive sessions. The work focussed on driving forces behind the changes in demand for forest products and services, taking use of expert viewpoints outside the traditional forest sector as well as the experiences on foresight methods and tools that can be utilised in the futures-oriented exercises.

The workshop will continue with an internet-based session on trends and drivers inviting a wide participation. The second workshop will follow in February 2011 on scenario development, and again with an interlinked internet-based session to test the scenarios drafted. Project will result definition of future research orientations and the information gathered will be available for further exercises. Results will be disseminated to policy and decision makers in two conferences in the autumn 2011.

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